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What happened in markets this week, and what are analysts talking about?
Uni-Asia
• KGI; Joel Ng: Upgrade to Outperform with TP S$0.91. Valuations are attractive with bulk carrier upcycle and resilient property markets in HK and Japan. The House raises its multiples for shipping division from 0.2x to 0.5x P/B while maintaining 0.5x P/B for its HK and Japan property business. Forecast dividend of 3-3.5 S Cents on 40-48% payout ratio to give an implied dividend yield of 5%.
Koufu
• PhillipCapital; Terrence Chua: Downgrade to neutral with lower TP S$0.64: Given the slower than expected recovery in consumption, the house lower its profit forecast and reduced its TP to S$0.64 implying a PE of 18.5x FY21F. Koufu has seen a fall in footfalls for its food outlets in malls and tertiary institutions as Singapore move into Phase 2 (Heightened Alert). Construction of its integrated facility has also been delayed by COVID-19 measures to 3Q21, where the Group will be occupying 75% of total GFA and leasing out the remaining.
Boustead Projects
Boustead Projects reported a net profit of S$131.7m which was below expectations, as its design and build segment was affected by COVID-19. With the successful unlocking of its value and capital recycling, Boustead Projects has declared a special dividend of 14.5 S cents, with a total FY21 DPS of 15.4 S cents translating to a yield of 13.9%.
•CIMB; Ong Khang Chuen; Add with higher TP S$1.40: Valuations are attractive with net cash of S$0.95/share as of end of FY21, while owning a portfolio of industrial properties worth S$700m that can be potentially injected into property trusts. Raise TP to S$1.40 on 25% discount to RNAV of S$1.86 (post-special dividend payout).
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The market has been reacting with each new Covid development. But has it gone in the direction you expected it to go? We break down the share price changes of eight local companies from Circuit Breaker to Phase 2 (Heightened Alert).
Comment below to share your thoughts with us!
What happened in markets this week, and what are analysts talking about?
Tencent
Tencent reported 1Q results which were generally in line with estimates. Revenue +25% yoy to RMB135,303m ; Net profit +65% yoy to RMB47,767m while non IFRS net profit grew 22% yoy to RMB33,118m.
• CIMB; Mark & Chi Man: Maintain ADD with a lower TP of HK$677.1. The slowdown in online game revenue growth was somewhat expected due to the positive impact of COVID-19 in 2020 on online gaming revenue. Tencent stated that it would increase its investment in 3 strategic areas (1) Business services (SaaS products); (2) games; (3) short video. The increase in investment is expected to put pressure on near-term profitability- as such reduce net profit forecasts for FY21-23F with a lower DCF based TP of HK$677.1.
• UBS: Maintain BUY with a lower TP of HK$730. Sees Tencent as the less risky option in a sector facing regulatory and competitive headwinds. Believe the magnitude and pace of investment will be milder compared to peers who are building asset-heavy and lower margin businesses. As a result of the investments which will hit near term earnings, revise earnings down by 7% in 2021-2022 and lower PT to HK$730 (from HK$780).
• UOB: Maintain BUY with a lower TP of HK$789. Good 1Q results as online gaming revenue growth normalizing, online advertising remaining strong and Fintech and business services revenue growth accelerating to 47% on faster growth from cloud segment, consolidation of Bitauto, and healthy growth in fintech services. However, the House also reduced it TP to HK$789 (from HK832) as it lower its net profit forecasts on ongoing investments and as the company enter another period of transition.
Singapore Airlines
• UOB; K Ajith: Maintain SELL with lower TP S$4.15: Earnings were within expectations, however, the issuance of S$6.2b in mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) offers shareholders little to cheer. Temasek has given an undertaking to take up any unsubscribed portions. Including the latest MCB, SIA would have raised S$21.6b since the pandemic started. Monthly operating cash burn has declined to S$100-150m from S$250m in Feb 21. SIA plans to raise pax capacity to 32% (of pre-pandemic levels) by Jul 21. (Currently pax capacity in Apr 21 was 24% of pre-pandemic level)
• CLSA: Maintain SELL at S$4.20. The house remains cautious of SIA’s recovery outlook and lowers its passenger traffic assumption cutting its FY23F net profit forecast by 16%. Stock is trading at 1.3x forward P/B against a long-term average of 0.96x.
Jiutian
Jiutian is a manufacturer of chemicals that are used as feedstock for a variety of applications including DMF, which is used in consumer goods, pharmaceutical, agrochemical products and electronics sectors.
•KGI, Joel: Initiate Outperform with TP of S$0.145: TP is based on 7x FY2022F PE, as the House expects to record earnings in 2021, helped by favorable industry supply/demand dynamics. The Group declared its first dividend since 2008 of S$0.0035 for 1Q2021. The House forecasts a full year dividend of S$0.0063-0.0084 for FY2021-2023F based on 30% payout ratio, which will translate to a yield of 7-9%.
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What happened?
China has banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency, warning investors against speculative trading.
According to a report by Bloomberg, China is home to about 70% of the world’s bitcoin-related calculations deriving from IP addresses based in China.
Prior to this, the cryptocurrency market has already been under pressure after Tesla’s Elon Musk declared that Tesla will stop accepting Bitcoin payments, due to the “rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for bitcoin mining”. To make matters worst, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, came under investigation by the Justice Department and IRS, as it faces probe by US money laundering and tax sleuths.
The total cryptocurrency markets are now down more than 20% from their peak in May, although it is still up a staggering 1.5x since the start of the year.
Global cryptocurrency total market cap (year to date)
Bitcoin has lost more than 30% from its peak, but is still up 30% year to date.
Ethereum is also down nearly 30% from its peak, but is up nearly 4x year to date, outperforming its big brother, Bitcoin.
Source: coinmarketcap
Cryptocurrency crashes are common – but also scary and big
Looking back into history, cryptocurrency crashes have been big and probably not for the weak-hearted. Here is an old image of the bitcoin crashes as compiled by howmuch.net and if history was a guide, it ranges from 30% to as much as 87%.
Source: marketwatch & howmuch.net
Its not all bad… and probably not the end for cryptocurrency.
As bad as all the headlines may look right now, it is worth taking a step back to look at things from the broader perspective. The cryptocurrency has came a long way since and is in a much better position now than it was a few years ago, with greater adoption among institutions and consumers and the increased access provided by companies such as Paypal, Square, and investment firms such as DBS, Goldman Sachs etc for investors.
The practical utility of cryptocurrency has also been affirmed with the EIB launching its first digital bond issuance on the Etherum blockchain platform in April 2021.
So is this a buy on dips market? Pls let us know in the comments section below.
Disclaimer: The writer owns Ethereum and other digital coins at the point of writing.
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We talked about how to save more money in the previous article. Now let’s talk about something that’s less fun but equally important: how to pay off debt.
We’ll all land in debt one way or another (that is of course, unless you have the backing of a trust fund), perhaps most commonly through student or housing loans. But there are other more pesky variants of debt, like credit card debts with exorbitant interest rates, or debts borne out of circumstance, such as an unexpected medical bill.
Debts are no fun and they literally take the life force out of you.
Unfortunately, there isn’t a magic wand you can wave to make your debts go away. But you can deal with debt in smarter ways to make it go away quicker.
Before we get into today’s debt mangement strategies proper, let’s begin with some hard truths.
Look at your debts squarely
When there is a mountain of debt piling up every month, the last thing anyone wants to do is to look at the number and feel depressed all over again.
But the first step in dealing with your debts is to look at it squarely. Say goodbye to debt denial.
From there, work out the reasons why you landed in debt. Was it poor spending habits? Consider canceling your credit card. Was it a lack of forward planning? Maybe speak to someone whose more financiall savvy to learn what you can do. Was it because you didn’t have a large enough Start building a substantial fund now. Basically, identify the reason and find the right remedy for it.
Once you have the numbers down, it’s time to work out a game plan. We did some research and found these two popular strategies that might help you eliminate debt quicker.
#1 Debt Avalanche Method
Following this method, you should pay off accounts starting from the one with the highest interest rate.
So here’s what you need to do.
- Make the minimum payment on all accounts
- Pay however more you can on the account with the highest interest rate
- Once you’ve settled your debts on that account, move onto the account with the second highest interest rate by paying the minimum amount + what you were paying for the settled account + any extra amount
This method makes sure you tackle the account with the highest interest first, so you incurr less damage at the end of the day.
#2 Debt Snowball Method
One of the downsides of the debt avalanche method is that you might not feel like you’re making progress, especially if you’re dealing with larger debt accounts first. It’ll take a longer time before you can tick anything off your list.
If you’re someone that functions better when you feel motivated and accomplished, consider the debt snowball method.
Following this method, deal with the account with the lowest balance first, then work your way up.
- Make the minimum payment on all accounts
- Pay however more you can on the account with the lowest balance
- Once you’ve settled your debts on that account, move onto the account with the second lowest balance by paying the minimum amount + what you were paying for the settled account + any extra amount
You can accumulate small wins along the way when you use this method, hence the name snowball.
However, do note that this method will mean delaying payment on the account with the highest interest rate. You will end up incurring more costs at the end of the day. Ultimately, you should know which method works best for you to deal with your debt successfully.
In the meantime, save more, earn more, and get to work chipping away at your debt!
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What happened in markets this week, and what are analysts talking about?
iFast
To recap, iFast reported its results in April with a record net profit of S$8.8m in 1Q (2.5x from a year ago); on the back of a 51.4% rise in revenue. Assets under admin (AUA) also grew to a new record of S$16.1b. Link to results ppt
• UBS; Aakash: Initiate BUY with TP of S$10. While at first glance, iFast is expensive at 48x Forward PE, however, the House believes that near-term growth is not priced in, not to mention the potential hockey stick growth which the House believes may be possible given the scalability of the business. The House believes iFast may enjoy strong growth given (1) its recent history of rapid 20%+ AUA growth; (2) Early experiences of mature peers; (3) Structural Asian wealth management growth opportunity in SG/China; (4) Greater acceptance of online platforms and (5) Room to grow market share in 5 key markets.
Riverstone Holdings
• CIMB; Ong Khang Chuen: Maintain BUY with a lower TP of S$1.80. Continue to like Riverstone for its strong earnings prospects as it benefits from the robust glove demand in both cleanroom and healthcare sectors. Hower, the house lower TP due to a switch to DCF valuation methodology to better reflect the inflection in selling prices and earnings normalisation in coming years. The house sees dividend yield for FY21F to potentially rise to 13.2% assuming a 60% payout ratio.
• UOB; John Cheong: Maintain BUY with a higher TP of S$1.75. 1Q net profit beat the house estimate by >100% due to higher than expected ASP and net margin, as well as favorable demand-supply dynamics. The house sees Riverstone’s cleanroom gloves as standing a good chance to maintain favorable ASP beyond COVID-19 as unique selling points.
Propnex
•UOB; Adrian Loh: Maintain BUY with a higher TP of S$1.34. 1Q net profit jumped 97% to S$16.2m beating estimates. According to management, the stronger results were due to improved market sentiment, successful COVID-19 vaccine rolls out locally, and availability of ample liquidity, and attractively priced new project launches. While Management believes cooling measures are likely but it will be targeted in nature as the pace of economic recovery remains uncertain.
•CIMB; Lock Mun Yee: Maintain BUY with higher TP of S$1.19, based on 10x FY2021F PE and DCF valuation. The House raised its earnings estimates for FY21-23F by 14.9-21.9% after increasing its private resale and primary market transaction value assumptions due to a higher mix of centrally located products.
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I distinctly remember what I felt when I saw my first full-time salary in my bank account.
“Omg…like that only ah…”
I was earning a typical graduate’s pay at that time. After calculating a realistic monthly expenses budget, I realised that I could only save approximately $1000+ each month. It would take me the entire year to save just slightly above $10,000.
What I meant by a realistic budget was this: I was working at an office in Orchard then. There were no hawker centres, and food courts were few and far between. Sure, I could eat at a food court daily, order cai png or fishball noodles and save a ton. But eating that daily? That’s quite a stretch.
Sometimes, my lunch buddies and I just wanted something different for a change. Is that too much to ask for? *grumbles*
That monotomous 9-to-5 life also meant that most office workers will need some entertainment through the work week. Shopping for new work outfits, streaming service subscriptions, a gym membership, weekend activities…the list goes on. Unless you have a difficult and urgent financial situation to deal with, I think that most of us would find it hard to get through the week without any entertainment at all.
I wondered how I was going to pay for big ticket items in the future, like a house, a family, or let’s be real, medical expenses if my parents’ ever needed it. The pressure was real – during work, to meet work expectations, and after work, to meet life expecations.
If you want to increase your foundation of savings faster, here are some tips on how you can do it.
#1 Create a budgeting rule (50/30/20)
Arguably the most popular budgeting rule is the 50/30/20 rule.
You can modify the rule to suit your needs. I can comfortably save about 40% of my earnings. The rule looks more like 40/20/40 for me.
The thing about budgeting rules is that it only works if you stick to it, duh. If you have trouble sticking to budgets, I recommend keeping track of your expenses using an app. I use Wallet, they have a mobile and web version which makes it really convenient to track your expenses even when you’re on the go. There are paid features on the app, but the free one works just fine for me. I can set monthly budgets, create savings goals and track expenses from different bank accounts, which is detailed enough for my purposes.
There’s no trick, no hack for this. Just record everything the moment you spend it and control your expenses if you’ve overspent for a few days.
#2 Know what to spend on
You know how to save, but do you know how to spend?
Honestly, this one takes a bit of trial and error. It’s about knowing your lifestyle and what works for you, and nobody gets it right at the first try.
I used to spend on a monthly gym membership, which I only discovered a few hundred dollars later that it wasn’t for me. Some other things I used to splurge on were things like weekend cafe runs and excessive grab rides. Of course, there are people who save excessively and sacrifice on some enjoyment. How much and what you choose to spend on lies on a spectrum.
That’s why the word is relative. How and what to spend on is entirely up to you. That’s why the hardest part about this all is comparison – feeling like you have to do what the next person is doing. But that’s a conversation for another day.
For a start, be honest with yourself about what works and what doesn’t work, and don’t be afraid to cut things out when they emotional payoff doesn’t match the financial expenses.
#3 Get on the side hustle bandwagon
One way to save more is to earn more. Enter the side hustle life.
Still not convinced by the side hustle life? Just think about the avalanche of uncertainty and change that is 2020. Now’s the time to start diversifying your income streams.
But the side hustle life isn’t all rosy. Side hustling means working more than your regular 9-to-5 hours. You must be prepared to sacrifice time for rest and socialising to do this.
Of course, you might think that you can get a cushy side hustle that pays decently well for a bit of work. However, my experience with side hustles is that it can be a hit or miss. It’s hard to find something that balances out the money vs time equation. I really can’t justify getting paid $10 for a 600 word article (yes, those are the rates you’ll find in low entry writing jobs).
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. I know of accounting colleagues who did some simple bookkeeping for small business owners, friends who are event photographers on the side. It takes a bit of creativity and a lot of hard work to distill from your existing skillset something that people need.
When you have 6 months of salary in savings, you’re in the clear to begin investing – we will be sharing more about investing tips in future articles. In the meantime, happy saving!
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What happened?
Meituan’s share price dropped as much as 9.8% on Monday after its CEO’s social media post over the weekend sparked concerns that Meituan may face more regulatory crackdown.
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Meituan CEO cited a poem about burning books during the Qin dynasty in a social media post which sparked speculation that he was complaining about the regulatory crackdown. |
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Wang has subsequently deleted the post and denied that the post is about the crackdown. In his re-post, he clarified that the post was about the Qin dynasty being wary of scholars, but the ultimate downfall of the Qin Dynasty came down to someone who did not was from Liu Bang who did not read any books. This ancient poem reminded him that the most dangerous competitors are usually not the expected ones- likening the case to Alibaba vs JD.com vs Pingduoduo. |
However, the damage has already been done as Meituan closed 7% down on Monday, closing below HK$274, its recent support, which may suggest further downside from a technical perspective. Meituan is down more than 40% from its 52 weeks high and 10% year to date.
What others are saying?
The post was a very famous anti-establishment poem, which suggests that Meituan may be under huge pressure from the government. It also does not reflect well of Meituan during this period of a crackdown. Sentiments for the China tech sector remain poor as concerns over the government’s regulations continue to linger, and catalysts for market leaders such as Meituan in the near term remain weak.
In terms of valuation, Meituan is attractive as it trades at 7.8x EV/sales- near a 1 year low, after its significant re-rating which started in Mar 2020.
Meituan remains one of the key technology powerhouses, with its dominance in food delivery and online travel booking. However, as price action continues to struggle with ongoing regulatory concerns, are you a bull or a bear for Meituan? Let us know in the comments section below.
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What happened in markets this week, and what are analysts talking about?
MC Payment
RHB issued its Top 20 small-cap jewels for 2021, and MC Payment was part of this year’s series.
• RHB; Shekhar Jaiswal: MC Payment is the first SGX-listed proxy to growth in the ASEAN digital payments industry, providing an integrated digital payment infrastructure for merchants by offering a one-stop solution to accept all forms of digital payment and enabling them to run their businesses both online and offline. The house believes that MC Payment is a good proxy to e-payment growth in ASEAN, amidst the rising household income and increasing online commerce, underlying the need for economies to go cashless. The house also notes that, MC Payment’s closest ASEAN listed peer, GHL SYstems has seen earnings growth at 33% CAGR, and share price performance of 300% return in 5 years.
Marco Polo Marine
RHB issued its Top 20 small-cap jewels for 2021, and Marco Polo Marine was part of this year’s series.
• RHB; Jarick Seet : The house sees Marco Polo Marine as an Oil and Gas turnaround play having reversed from a loss of S$3.9m in FY18 to a positive EBITDA of S$2.4m in FY19. With a brighter outlook, the house sees a return to profitability in FY20-21F as highly possible with a continued pick-up in ship chartering, and ship repair/building activities. The house sees potential for a strong re-rating for the stock once profitability starts to kick in. Currently, the house believes Marco Polo Marine holds deep value where the Group is in a net cash balance sheet, and currently trading below significantly impaired NAV, and white knights’ and creditors’ entry price.
AEM
•Maybank; Gene Lih Lai: 1Q21 net profit was weaker than expected due to tougher comparison year on year, and cyclical softness ahead of volume ramp of new generation test handlers. The house increase TP to S$5.56 to roll forward to 14x FY22F PE, as it believes investors should focus on recovery potential of the Group.
•KGI; Kenny Tan: Maintain Outperform but with lower TP of S$4.36. Believes that long term prospects remain bright but there is limited near term upside to share price. Expect catalysts in 2H21 from potential surprise in orders inflow.
•CIMB; William Tng: Reiterate Add with unchanged TP of S$4.63. AEM expects 1H21 financial performance to be weaker yoy, but guided for a stronger 2H vs 1H. House sees share price weakness as a chance to add.
For our more info on markets and access to stock research, pls open a trading account with our preferred broker or subscribe to us. PM @moneyplantt at Telegram or email us at connect@gem-comm.com
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“We live in a culture of blame. People will blame anyone or anything for their misery sooner than take the responsibility to own it and make it better.” Dr. Henry Cloud; Dr. John Townsend, It’s Not My Fault.
We have met many many investors around the world. There are those who are responsible and there are those who blame anyone and anything.
This is apparent yet often ignored: You are the only person responsible for your investments. You have a mind of your own.
In life, as an investor or not, we must be responsible for our own decision and doings. Even if someone gave you a piece advice or sent some marketing materials – this should just be a reference. If you decide to go ahead and invest, be responsible for your own Losses and Wins.
The Bak Kwa Theory
We put on weight after eating that Bak Kwa (Asian Pork Jerky); we blame it on Bak Kwa’s marketing for that enticing advertisement. The fact is you gave in to temptation!
We have heard many complaints for why and how some investors lost money.
Some of these excuses include:
- “That someone told me it’s a good stock!”
- “The management is a liar”
- “The sell-side analyst suckz”
- “The Investor relations marketed the stock”
- “The blog said it’s excellent stock idea”
And the list goes on.
You lost money- wrong pick, wrong analysis on your own.
If you invest without analyzing or when your original thesis turns out to be wrong — then you are solely responsible!
Be Responsible and Stop the Blame Game
Excuses and blames reflect how lazy and irresponsible we are. We must do all the heavy lifting that’s called homework. If it were capital guaranteed, then everyone would be a wealthy investor. Sorry, life is not all roses!
You won’t believe that Disney founder was fired by his newspaper editor for apparently “not having good ideas or any imagination?” That’s right, his newspaper editor didn’t even believe he can be a good writer. And Disney took the feedback and worked on it. Improvised and Innovate.
Walt Disney Co. is currently valued billions of dollars.
Stop Whining
Whining about bad luck/ bad advises reflects badly on you. I met an investor many years ago. We marketed a Singapore listed entertainment stock to him and he made tons. Unfortunate events happened to the company and the stock tanked due to unforeseen circumstances. He blames everything except for himself about it.
When good times, you enjoyed the harvest. Bad times, you blame everyone and everything except yourself.
A man can lose money, but he isn’t a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.
Be a responsible investor, make sure to do your research thoroughly and make a risk-informed decision on which stocks to buy!